Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 12.231443 14.288002 16.527630 19.140452 22.097290 25.331843 29.129887
2025-01-19 8.906559 11.688266 15.015990 19.255613 24.475265 30.651123 38.466977
2025-01-26 7.372439 10.659061 14.904964 20.707135 28.332448 37.905550 50.710054
2025-02-02 6.139093 9.669497 14.546174 21.620074 31.436247 44.370912 62.457207
2025-02-09 5.218642 8.878535 14.243876 22.441688 34.358700 50.713721 74.439953
2025-02-16 4.308782 7.899665 13.472284 22.413112 35.981100 55.305483 84.283761
2025-02-23 3.481417 6.874504 12.442391 21.806103 36.607078 58.431916 92.178526
2025-03-02 2.786139 5.924566 11.365705 20.943197 36.682827 60.663393 98.818591
2025-03-09 2.354527 5.356631 10.825706 20.849597 37.893138 64.605043 108.159355
2025-03-16 1.965541 4.787706 10.189757 20.492858 38.600344 67.762131 116.434085
2025-03-23 1.809433 4.657857 10.330411 21.495013 41.630213 74.747402 131.021307
2025-03-30 1.605826 4.384139 10.152768 21.884284 43.613010 80.128573 143.317816
2025-04-06 1.384984 4.035060 9.794005 21.926848 45.047053 84.796282 154.911474
2025-04-13 1.195834 3.720110 9.460755 21.982923 46.515033 89.629621 167.090927
2025-04-20 1.150234 3.755629 9.880665 23.580948 50.958161 99.830542 188.783027
2025-04-27 1.064396 3.666442 10.010151 24.591451 54.357445 108.389905 208.102172
2025-05-04 0.980673 3.563831 10.092436 25.504977 57.627398 116.886963 227.707755
2025-05-11 0.852312 3.300446 9.754852 25.472077 59.020955 122.065540 241.759112
2025-05-18 0.710311 2.955308 9.160004 24.794673 59.048824 124.720122 251.447021
2025-05-25 0.578698 2.601475 8.479403 23.831554 58.389607 126.023722 258.732053
2025-06-01 0.500828 2.405977 8.181982 23.727021 59.512173 130.744563 272.430194
2025-06-08 0.423957 2.188158 7.784287 23.328674 59.959698 134.168946 283.865995
2025-06-15 0.403436 2.181701 7.988892 24.447401 63.810647 144.441017 308.528881